Finance Forecast Evaluation Spine

Runs econometric forecast-evaluation tests on synthetic fixtures, recording p-values and refusals with no advice.

Contract

Does Runs public synthetic forecast-evaluation fixtures through copied finance statistics modules and records p-value/refusal behavior without live market data or advice claims.

Scope limit synthetic fixture forecast-evaluation statistics only; no investment-related actions, live market data, track record, or performance claim

Run

Command

microcosm finance-forecast-evaluation-spine run --input fixtures/first_wave/finance_forecast_evaluation_spine/input --out receipts/first_wave/finance_forecast_evaluation_spine

Evidence

ClassExternal tool runevidence 4/5Real runtime resultRuns real tools

Links to Prediction Market Board Bundle, Prediction Oracle Reconciliation

research-workflowsforecastingfinance

Source

Source Design note · Source

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Paper module

Paper module Finance Forecast Evaluation Spine

Forecast-evaluation component: Diebold-Mariano / Hansen-SPA / stationary-bootstrap stats over synthetic fixtures with typed refusal discipline; no market authority.

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