Prediction Oracle Reconciliation

Replays a forecast against the discipline a careful predictor would have to defend.

Contract

Does Runs a made-up forecasting case through the discipline a careful predictor would have to defend: which way a fork was called and why the losing side was ruled out, whether each prediction stayed inside the pre-declared list of allowed outcomes, that no "after the fact" evidence got used as if it were known in advance, how the guesses compared to a synthetic "what actually happened" result, and that any edits to the running record were small, allowed changes rather than rewrites. The reasoning is laid out as inspectable records rather than a single handed-down verdict. Everything is invented test data — it makes no real forecast and claims no track record.

Scope limit It exercises projection mechanics on a synthetic, invented packet only. It does not establish forecasting correctness or accuracy, give trading/financial/investment-related actions, call live market data or providers, publish predictions, claim any performance or track record, import non-public data, or include launch operations.

Run

Command

PYTHONPATH=src python3 -m microcosm_core.organs.prediction_oracle_reconciliation run --input fixtures/first_wave/prediction_oracle_reconciliation/input --out receipts/first_wave/prediction_oracle_reconciliation

Evidence

ClassComputed projectionevidence 3/5Source-faithful refactor

Links to Market Dashboard Read-Model Bundle, Prediction Market Board Bundle, Structural Theses Finance Bundle

research-workflowsforecastingprovider operations

Source

Source Design note · Source

Map Show on the map

Index Open compact index card

Paper module

Paper module Prediction Oracle Reconciliation

Prediction Oracle Reconciliation exercises synthetic forecast reconciliation gates without forecasting, trading, provider, or live-market authority.

Read the full write-up

Back to Components index → Reference roster →