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Goldfeld’s conjecture: densities and mean analytic rank

OpenAI groups related papers into a “family”. OpenAI’s catalogue describes this one:

Proves Goldfeld’s conjecture for quadratic twists of every elliptic curve over ℚ: analytic ranks zero and one each have density 1/2, and the mean analytic rank tends to 1/2. Both statements order signed squarefree twist parameters by absolute value.

The release has no Lean statement for this family, so there is no formal statement to compare with the result described above.

Two current papers; two replaced by later editions.

One problem has been reported by others; the atlas has not judged it.

What the papers state

Theorem 1.2 (Goldfeld’s analytic density conjecture)

In Goldfeld’s analytic density conjecture and the 2-converse for elliptic curves, 7 October 2026

Possible match to OpenAI’s description, selected because it shares the most wording. No review confirming the selection is recorded.

For every elliptic curve E/\Q and each j\in\{0,1\},

\lim_{X\to\infty} \frac{\#\{d\in\mathcal D(X):a(E^{(d)})=j\}}{\#\mathcal D(X)} =\frac12.

Consequently the twists of analytic rank at least two have density zero. For a density-one set of signed squarefree parameters d, the analytic and Mordell–Weil ranks of E^{(d)} agree and its whole Tate–Shafarevich group is finite.

The release does not say which paper theorem its catalogue describes. Both statements above are shown whole: the paper’s main theorem first, then the statement that shares the most wording with the description. The atlas has not reviewed either choice.

Four more possible matches

  • Theorem 1.1 in The mean analytic rank of quadratic twists of elliptic curves, 6 October 2026.
  • Corollary 1.3 (Fixed algebraic-rank moments) in The mean analytic rank of quadratic twists of elliptic curves, 6 October 2026.
  • Theorem 1.2 in The mean analytic rank of quadratic twists of elliptic curves, 6 October 2026.
  • Corollary 1.3 (A finite Selmer criterion) in Goldfeld’s analytic density conjecture and the 2-converse for elliptic curves, 7 October 2026.
Reported proof verification
The release has no Lean statement for this family. The papers are available to read and assess.

Papers

Each paper opens as a reading page in the browser, with the PDF beside it. The statements each paper opens with are on its reading page.

Goldfeld’s analytic density conjecture and the 2-converse for elliptic curves

7 October 2026, current edition.

Read it herePDF

This version updates citations to revised manuscripts in this collection; see the previous version.

Earlier editions: 23 September 2026

We prove Goldfeld’s analytic density conjecture: for every elliptic curve E over ℚ, the quadratic twists of E with analytic rank zero and one each have density 1/2 among signed squarefree twist parameters ordered by absolute value. We also prove the low-corank 2-converse: if the \(2^\infty\)-Selmer corank of E is zero or one, then it equals the analytic and Mordell–Weil ranks, and the Tate–Shafarevich group is finite.

The mean analytic rank of quadratic twists of elliptic curves

6 October 2026, current edition.

Read it herePDF

This version updates citations to revised manuscripts in this collection; see the previous version.

Earlier editions: 23 September 2026

For every elliptic curve over ℚ, we prove that the average analytic rank of its quadratic twists tends to 1/2 when signed squarefree twist parameters are ordered by absolute value. This resolves Goldfeld’s mean analytic-rank conjecture in this counting convention.

Previous editions

Lean statements

The release has no Lean statement for this family. Its papers remain available to read, and contributors can propose a formal statement of a result. Suggest a change

Independent comparisons and proof-verification reports

Does the Lean express the advertised result?

The release contains no Lean statement for this family, so there is no formal statement to compare with OpenAI’s description.

Problems reported by others

Reports of errors and corrections from outside readers, as they state them. The atlas has not judged them.

  • holimart, filed on a personal fork, Report: mod-8 congruence (eq. pw:split-mod8) in Lemma pw:split-witness fails numerically, Goldfeld 2-converse manuscript (issue 2), 8 October 2026. Source

    The mod-8 congruence in the proof of Lemma pw:split-witness appears false for many allowed primes unless the proof’s equality branch is always empty; the filer stresses this is a gap in one step, not a refutation.

Explanations by others

Explanations of this family written elsewhere, by the people named. Each is their own reading of the mathematics.

  • mo271, Wikipedia/EllipticCurveRank: goldfeld_conjecture.variants.squarefree is true (issue 6916), 7 October 2026. Source

    The two-primary BSD manuscript with Smith’s distribution gives rank 0 or 1 with density one half for squarefree twists.

What these papers cite in the release, and what cites them

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Within this family

Papers elsewhere in the release that cite this family’s papers

References outside the release

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Explain a result, compare statements or propose a correction

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What people have said

Commentary on this family by others, dated and credited. It is commentary, not a finding.

  • An unsigned public tier list, the OpenAI Math Tier List, classes it as a proof and rates its significance, if it holds up, as “Career-defining publication”. The page says that nothing on it is verified.

    Author not stated. Source

  • Kevin Buzzard, Algebraic number theory results without Lean, 7 October 2026. Source

    An expert flags that the release gives no Lean for Goldfeld’s conjecture on quadratic twists and suggests it may be the last mile of a programme already close to done rather than a new idea.

Questions awaiting review

Each item identifies a statement, definition or report that needs further review. Its link opens a GitHub form with the source version already recorded.

Identify the theorem the catalogue describes

  • Family 006 The theorem shown was selected from shared wording with OpenAI’s description. Atlas records no review confirming that it is the theorem the description means. Open the form

State the result in Lean

  • Family 006 The release has no Lean statement for this family. Open the form